GDP Bounce: Disappointing Mixed Bag of Expectations and Revisions; Where to From Here?

This morning, the BEA reported Second Quarter GDP was 2.3%.

2.3% was at the low end of the Consensus Range of 1.9% to 3.5%. On the plus side, first quarter was revised way higher.

Revisions

• First quarter 2015 revised up from -0.2% to +0.6%
• 2013 GDP revised lower from 2.2% to 1.5%
• 2012 GDP revised lower from 2.3% to 2.2%

Evolution of First Quarter 2015 GDP

• +0.2% Initial
• -0.7% Revised
• -0.2% Revised
• +0.6% Revised

GDP is the most lagging of all indicators. By the time all the revisions are in (years later), no one even cares.

I suspect after the "final" revision, first quarter 2015 GDP will be back in the negative column, with all of 2015 revised lower as well.

Don't hold your breath waiting.

Weak First Half

Meanwhile, the first half of the year looks pretty weak.

Last year, a first quarter GDP of -0.9% was followed by a huge second quarter surge to +4.6%, sustained with a strong third quarter +4.3%.

In comparison, this bounce was feeble.

Where to From Here?

If retail sales do not pick up, and especially if auto sales slide as I suspect they will, third quarter will shock the economists who believe this economy is strong and getting stronger.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com